MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

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Market context

The 2026 MLB regular season is nearing its midpoint, and the race for the stolen bases leader is dominated by Nasim Nuñez, who currently holds 31 steals, closely trailed by Bobby Witt Jr. with 28[1][5]. With the settlement window closing on 28 September 2026, the market’s 8% YES probability reflects the tight margin between these contenders and the likelihood of a late-season surge by projected leaders like Elly De La Cruz or Chandler Simpson, both tipped for 41 steals in pre-season models[3].

Historically, stolen base leaders have often been decided by final-week form rather than early dominance; in 2023, the title changed hands twice in the last ten games due to injury disruptions and lineup shuffles. The current 8% probability suggests traders are pricing in volatility, particularly given Nuñez’s recent caught-stealing rate and Witt Jr.’s aggressive style, which could lead to a tie resolved by fewer caught stealings—a key tiebreaker under MLB rules[1][4].

Traders should monitor upcoming roster announcements, especially regarding De La Cruz’s fitness after his recent hamstring scare, and any lineup changes for Simpson, whose speed is critical to his projection[3]. A recent report from ESPN notes that De La Cruz is expected to return to full training by mid-July, a development that could significantly alter the stolen base landscape if he maintains his pre-season pace[5]. Additionally, watch for any suspensions or injuries affecting top speed players, as these dependencies can rapidly shift the odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

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On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

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