"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount Pictures will release the eleventh instalment of the Scary Movie franchise on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance measured across the 5–7 June period. The franchise has not released a theatrical film since 2013's Scary Movie 5, which opened to $15.1 million domestically. The intervening thirteen years have seen significant shifts in horror-comedy audience behaviour, streaming distribution patterns, and franchise fatigue across legacy properties. Comparable recent horror-comedies have struggled: Freaky (2020) opened to $10.4 million before pandemic closures, whilst The Babysitter franchise migrated entirely to Netflix. The 0% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about whether the property retains sufficient theatrical appeal to clear even modest opening thresholds.

The June 2026 release date positions the film against established summer tentpole competition, with studios typically front-loading major releases into early June. Box office tracking data closer to release will clarify whether Paramount has secured significant marketing commitments and whether early audience testing indicates franchise revival potential. Industry commentary from Variety or The Hollywood Reporter in the months preceding release will signal studio confidence levels. The resolution mechanism depends entirely on The Numbers' final reported figures rather than studio estimates, meaning traders should monitor that source directly once opening weekend concludes on 7 June. Franchise revivals in horror-comedy have proven unpredictable; the market's current assessment reflects genuine ambiguity about whether nostalgia-driven interest or audience indifference will dominate opening weekend turnout.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.