Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from crossing the Strait of Hormuz as military tensions between the US and Iran have shut the route since early March. Vessel traffic has plummeted by over 95% compared to pre-war averages, with oil tankers almost entirely absent from the waterway. The current 44% YES probability reflects a market betting on a sudden, unlikely reversal of this blockade before July 2026, despite ongoing attacks on commercial vessels and the insistence that passage requires Iranian control.

Historical precedents show that even brief reopenings, such as the two-week ceasefire in April, failed to restore meaningful traffic, with daily crossings remaining negligible compared to the 75–125 ships seen before the conflict. The Strait has remained virtually closed for months, causing a spike in global oil prices and leaving many commercial ships anchored outside the chokepoint. For the market to resolve YES, a finalized daily transit count must equal or exceed the listed value, a threshold that appears improbable given the sustained standstill and lack of recovery in IMF PortWatch data.

Traders must watch for any announced peace deal or ceasefire that could restore confidence in safe passage, as shipping executives are currently awaiting such a resolution. Recent escalations, including US strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran’s retaliatory targeting of a US base, suggest the crisis will persist without a diplomatic breakthrough. According to Statista, the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains ongoing with shipping traffic virtually shut off, meaning any catalyst for increased transit would require a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape rather than minor adjustments.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.