GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly launched a model explicitly named **GPT-6** for general access, and the closest recent release was the April 2026 shipment of **GPT-5.5** rather than a numbered GPT-6 model.[1][12][17] That matters for pricing this market because a “Yes” here requires a clear public release by year-end, not just internal testing, private previews, or a renamed adjacent model.

The historical read-through is fairly harsh on an immediate breakout: OpenAI’s own public messaging in late 2025 said GPT-6 would not ship that year, and subsequent coverage through mid-2026 still described no official GPT-6 date, with expectations pushed into late 2026 or early 2027.[4][8][15] Comparable situations have also produced false positives in market commentary, where a much-hyped successor arrives under a different label, as happened when “Spud” became GPT-5.5 instead of GPT-6.[1][12][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are any OpenAI post on model naming, a developer-facing rollout in the model list, or a public ChatGPT/API availability notice that explicitly uses “GPT-6”.[11][12] Watch for the next release cadence after GPT-5.5, because if OpenAI continues shipping incremental variants, the probability of a full GPT-6 launch by 31 December falls further; if it pivots to a major numbered release, the market could reprice quickly from a currently stale 0% crowd view.[1][12][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for GPT-6 released by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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