Colombia Presidential Election

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Market context

Colombia will hold its next presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 21 June 2026 if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round. The current president, Gustavo Petro, took office in August 2022 after winning the 2022 election with 50.4% support in a runoff against Rodolfo Hernández. Colombian electoral law permits consecutive terms, meaning Petro remains eligible to seek re-election, though constitutional reform proposals could alter eligibility rules before the 2026 contest.

Historical precedent suggests runoff elections are the norm rather than exception in Colombian presidential contests. Since the country adopted two-round voting in 1991, only three candidates have won outright in the first round, with the majority of races proceeding to June runoffs. This structural feature means the implied probability of any single candidate winning outright by 31 May remains constrained, and traders should anticipate a second round as the baseline scenario rather than an upset outcome.

Key variables shaping the race include Petro's approval ratings, which have fluctuated significantly during his tenure amid economic pressures and policy disputes with Congress, and the emergence of opposition candidates from Colombia's centre-right and right-wing blocs. Congressional elections scheduled for March 2026 will provide crucial momentum signals ahead of the presidential vote. Any major policy shifts, constitutional amendments affecting term limits, or significant economic developments in the months preceding May 2026 could substantially alter candidate viability and coalition dynamics.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.