Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for Colorado’s governor, scheduled for 30 June 2026, where Attorney General Phil Weiser faces U.S. Senator Michael Bennet. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 68% YES for Weiser, despite a recent poll showing Bennet leading 36% to 30% among likely primary voters, a margin just outside the 4.4% error range with 34% undecided[1]. This tight contest mirrors past high-profile Democratic primaries in Colorado, such as the 2018 gubernatorial race where incumbent Jared Polis faced a narrow challenge before securing a decisive win, illustrating how early polling gaps can close rapidly when undecided voters break late[5]. Historical precedents suggest that term-limited officials like Weiser often leverage incumbency advantages, yet Bennet’s national profile and Senate backing could sway the outcome, making the 68% figure a reflection of market confidence rather than settled reality.

Traders should watch for candidate announcements, final campaign schedules, and any shifts in undecided voter alignment as the primary nears. A recent poll by Fighting for Colorado, supporting Weiser, indicates the race is tightening, with Bennet’s lead shrinking outside the margin of error[1]. Key dependencies include the Colorado Democratic Party’s official result announcement, which will resolve the market, and any potential second-round or run-off scenarios if no clear winner emerges[1]. Recent news from Colorado Politics confirms both candidates are term-limited in their current roles, adding urgency to their campaigns[1]. With the settlement window ending 30 June 2026, any late developments—such as endorsements, campaign spending surges, or unexpected voter turnout patterns—could significantly alter the probability, making this a volatile but high-stakes market for informed participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.