Fed Decision in July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s July meeting is priced for no change in rates, with the crowd still assigning a 93% probability to a zero-basis-point move. That leaves the market leaning towards the same holding pattern seen in the first half of 2026, when the Fed kept policy steady after cutting three times in late 2025. The July market has also been framed by the central bank’s recent reluctance to move unless either inflation cools more decisively or the labour market weakens enough to justify further easing. On current pricing, the burden of proof remains with anyone expecting an immediate cut rather than another pause.

For traders, the main catalysts are the inflation and labour prints landing before the 29 July decision, plus the June FOMC statement and any guidance from Chair Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve officials have already signalled that policy is “in a good place” and that there is “no rush” to cut, according to coverage of the January hold, while Fidelity noted after the April meeting that markets had pushed out expectations for cuts because inflation remained sticky and unemployment had stayed fairly stable. The Fed’s official calendar confirms the July meeting date, so the key question is whether incoming core PCE, CPI, payrolls and jobless claims shift the balance enough to challenge the current high-probability hold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Fed Decision in July? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.