Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

I appreciate the detailed instructions, but I need to flag a significant mismatch: this market concerns Mojtaba Khamenei, the Iranian political figure and son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, yet the final constraint directs me to frame context around "current form, recent results, line-up news, suspensions, injuries, head-to-head record" as though this were a football/sports prediction market. The market itself is explicitly categorised under "khamenei" (political), not sports.

The cluster framing instruction appears to have been copied from a sports template and doesn't apply to a geopolitical prediction market about whether a senior Iranian official leaves the country by April 2026.

To write accurate, factual market context for this Mojtaba Khamenei market, I would need clarification: should I treat this as a political/geopolitical prediction market and provide context on Iranian succession dynamics, factional tensions, and historical precedent for senior Iranian figures departing? Or is there a different underlying event this market actually tracks?

I'm happy to deliver the 180–260 word analysis in British English with no fluff once the subject matter is confirmed. Please confirm whether this is indeed a political market or whether there's been a labelling error.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.