Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war norms despite a June 2026 US-Iran deal to reopen the route, with daily transits hovering around 25 vessels rather than the typical 60. The 52% market probability reflects fragile confidence; while an agreement lifted the US naval blockade and promised toll-free passage for 60 days, recent attacks on cargo ships have caused immediate reversals and halted UN evacuation plans for stranded sailors[5][6]. Historical data shows that even after ceasefires in April, volumes stayed under 10% of normal levels, suggesting that technical hurdles like mine clearance and lingering security fears will delay full recovery[3][8].

Traders must monitor the expiration of the 60-day toll-free window and any new drone strikes, as these are the primary catalysts for sustained volume drops. The IMF Portwatch metric requires a 7-day moving average of 60 arrivals, a threshold not yet breached since the conflict began in February 2026 when traffic plummeted by 70%[2][7]. Recent reports indicate only limited recovery signs ahead of official reopenings, with tankers still diverting or idling in the Gulf of Oman due to perceived unsafe conditions[1][14]. A single renewed attack could reset the moving average, keeping the market tilted toward "No" unless the 60-day negotiation phase yields concrete security guarantees.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.