Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from the Strait of Hormuz, a critical geo-strategic chokepoint for global energy markets, following Iran’s asymmetric power campaign using drones and missiles that has kept the passage closed for 100 days. Pre-war, over 150 vessels crossed daily, but current traffic hovers near zero, with 150+ ships stranded and throughput under 2% of normal capacity. The closure has triggered a $4 billion daily economic cost, surged Brent crude, and forced rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 extra transit days.

Historical parallels are stark: the strait briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, confirming that transient openings do not equate to sustained normalcy. Even during the brief April window, traffic never approached the 60-day moving average threshold required for this market to resolve “Yes”. The 8% crowd-implied probability reflects the reality that no comparable closure in modern history has recovered to 60+ daily crossings within 100 days without a formal ceasefire or external military intervention.

Traders must watch for two catalysts: a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which President Trump has tied directly to reopening, and any unilateral Iranian decision to lift tolls or remove mines. Recent data shows a modest uptick—25 verified crossings on 18 June, the highest since mid-April—but this remains far below the 60-day average needed. As Bloomberg notes, Iran maintains control through asymmetric deterrence, making sustained recovery unlikely before July 7 without a major diplomatic shift [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.