Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

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Market context

The question hinges on whether Trump's administration will formally announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods or China-inclusive tariff categories between now and May 2026. The current 0% probability reflects market scepticism that such an announcement will materialise, despite Trump's history of tariff negotiations with Beijing during his first term and his stated willingness to use trade policy as a negotiating tool.

Trump's first administration imposed substantial tariffs on Chinese imports starting in 2018, but also negotiated the Phase One trade deal in January 2020, which involved Chinese commitments to purchase American goods rather than tariff reductions. That precedent suggests Trump favours extracting concessions through tariff threats rather than removing them unilaterally. The market's zero probability also reflects the current geopolitical environment: US-China tensions remain elevated over Taiwan, technology competition, and strategic competition, making tariff rollbacks politically difficult for any administration seeking to appear tough on Beijing.

Traders should monitor statements from Trump, Commerce Secretary Marco Rubio, and other cabinet officials for any shift toward tariff negotiations with China. Key catalysts include scheduled trade talks, any summit announcement between Trump and Xi Jinping, and quarterly tariff reviews. The settlement criteria require definitive announcements—not exploratory discussions or expressions of openness—making the bar relatively high. Recent reporting suggests the administration is focused on expanding rather than reducing tariff pressure, though trade negotiations can shift rapidly based on broader diplomatic developments.

Methodology

This page reviews Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.