Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its first-round presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a second round scheduled for 21 June should no candidate secure an outright majority. The market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most valid votes in the initial ballot, regardless of whether they cross the 50% threshold. Results must be confirmed by 31 December 2026 for settlement; otherwise the market resolves to "Other".

Colombian presidential elections have historically produced first-round winners only when an incumbent or dominant coalition candidate commands substantial polling leads months before voting. The 2022 election saw Gustavo Petro win the runoff after finishing second in the first round with 40.3%, whilst Rodolfo Hernández secured 28.2% in the opening ballot. The 0% probability currently assigned suggests traders assess the likelihood of any single candidate polling far enough ahead by mid-2026 to win outright as negligible, consistent with Colombia's recent pattern of competitive multi-candidate fields requiring decisive second rounds.

Key catalysts include the formal candidate registration deadline, typically set months before election day, and polling trends from late 2025 onwards. The Colombian electoral authority (CNE) will publish official results within days of voting, though international observers and media verification typically confirm outcomes within the settlement window. Political developments—coalition formations, candidate withdrawals, or significant scandals—could reshape the field between now and May 2026, though historical precedent suggests fragmentation rather than consolidation around a single frontrunner.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.