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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

How the prediction market is pricing "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

United Russia (ER) 56% New People (NL) 34% Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7% Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 2% Volume: $13.9M Liquidity: $1.2M Closes: 20 Sept 2026
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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
United Russia (ER)56%
New People (NL)34%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)7%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)2%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
Rodina0%
Civic Platform (GP)0%
Other0%
Party A0%
Party B0%
Party C0%
Party D0%
Party E0%
Party F0%
Party G0%
Party H0%
Party I0%
Party J0%
Party K0%
Party L0%
Party M0%
Party N0%
Party O0%
Party P0%
Party Q0%
Party R0%
Party S0%
Party T0%
Party U0%
Party V0%
Party W0%
Party X0%
Party Y0%
Party Z0%

Market context

Market consensus: 56% chance of which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of sea…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

Politics Putin Prediction Markets Russia Prediction Markets