Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate still has not passed the reconciliation bill needed to advance the immigration-and-DHS funding package, even though both chambers cleared the budget resolution in April and committees were told to deliver text by 15 May. That leaves the market in a thin time frame: the resolution window runs to 31 May, but any final Senate action must follow committee mark-up, floor scheduling, and a vote on the underlying bill. With the current crowd view at 0% for Yes, the pricing reflects the narrow calendar and the fact that the process has already slipped past its first internal deadline.

Comparable budget-reconciliation fights tend to move in bursts rather than steadily. Once the blueprint is adopted, the real test is whether leadership can corral committee drafts into a single bill and bring it to the floor without losing votes or running into procedural delays. In this case, CBO has already scored the Senate-side instructions at tens of billions of dollars in direct spending, and the House and Senate must stay aligned on the same framework before final passage can happen. A similar pattern in past reconciliation episodes is that early resolution does not guarantee a timely Senate vote; the gap between authorising a package and actually passing it is where most failures occur.

The key catalysts now are leadership statements, the filing of committee text, and whether Senate floor time is reserved before month-end. Congressional reporting from late April and mid-May said leadership was targeting completion in early June, which already sits beyond this market’s settlement window, and that makes any acceleration the main thing to watch. Official committee releases, a revised floor schedule, or a sudden agreement on the final package would be the clearest signs that the probability should move, while any further delay in submitting reconciliation language would push the bill further away from a 31 May Senate vote.

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Methodology

We track Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.