NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary in New York’s 13th congressional district is a live contest between incumbent Adriano Espaillat and challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with the market currently pricing Espaillat at **63%** against **38%** for Avila Chevalier.[1][2] The line reflects a familiar incumbent-versus-upstart pattern: Espaillat won re-election in 2024 with 83.5% of the vote and enters with the institutional advantage of holding the seat, while Avila Chevalier is running as a Harlem-based community organiser backed by Zohran Mamdani.[2] In that kind of setup, a mid-60s market price usually says the incumbent is favoured, but not comfortably enough for traders to ignore turnout swings or a late consolidation against him.[1][2]

The main catalyst is the primary itself on 23 June, with the ballot already set and the contest formally listed by the New York City Board of Elections.[3][4] Traders should watch for any late endorsements, turnout signals from precinct-heavy neighbourhoods, and whether the field remains fragmented or tightens further around the two better-known names, since the district’s Democratic primary ballot also includes Theo Chino-Tavarez and Oscar Romero.[3] ABC7NY described the race as one of the more contentious local Democratic primaries, which underlines that this is not a purely ceremonial incumbent defence.[6] Resolution for the market depends on who wins the Democratic nomination, and if no nominee is confirmed by the settlement deadline, the outcome falls to **Other** under the market rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.