England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, three weeks after the World Cup group stage concludes. The 4% implied probability reflects Costa Rica's substantial underdog status, though the fixture carries unusual weight for a friendly—both nations will be mid-tournament and managing fatigue, rotation, and injury concerns simultaneously.

England's recent record against lower-ranked opposition shows decisive margins. In qualifying, they beat San Marino 10–0 and Malta 5–0; friendlies against weaker sides typically yield comfortable victories. Costa Rica, ranked 31st globally, have won only one of their last eight matches. However, the context matters: this is not a standard friendly. If England advance from their group, Gareth Southgate's squad will prioritise recovery and squad rotation over intensity. Conversely, if England's tournament trajectory is uncertain, the match becomes a confidence-building exercise where they press harder. Costa Rica's recent form includes a 2–1 loss to Mexico in March 2026 and draws against lower-ranked nations, suggesting they lack the technical depth to exploit a heavily rotated England side.

Traders should monitor England's group-stage results and injury toll by early June. Southgate's team selection announcement, typically 48 hours before kick-off, will signal whether first-choice players feature or whether fringe squad members get minutes. Costa Rica's pre-match fitness updates matter less given their limited tactical sophistication. The 4% probability assumes England field a competitive XI; significant rotation could tighten the line modestly, though Costa Rica's conversion rate remains the binding constraint.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.