Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G clash between Egypt and IR Iran, set for 27 June 2026 at Seattle Stadium, is a decisive match where Egypt aims to secure top spot while Iran seeks knockout progression. With the crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome sitting at 16%, traders must weigh Egypt’s superior attacking metrics against Iran’s defensive resilience. The Opta supercomputer predicts Egypt as slight favourites, assigning them a 44.1% chance to win the match, while a draw is the next most likely result at 31.3% [1].

Historical precedents for this probability level in World Cup qualifiers often mirror tight, low-scoring affairs where a single goal decides the fixture. Egypt and Iran have met only once previously, in a 2000 LG Cup match that ended 1–1, with Egypt winning 8–7 on penalties [1][5]. Iran’s unbeaten record against African opposition at the World Cup, including draws with Nigeria and Angola, suggests they can frustrate Egypt’s attack, yet Iran currently ranks bottom of Group G for shots on target and expected goals [1]. This statistical gap supports the market’s cautious pricing on specific scorelines, as Egypt’s Mohamed Salah has scored or assisted in every World Cup appearance, a feat unmatched since James Rodríguez in 2014 [1].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and injury updates for both sides before kick-off, as any absence of key players like Salah could drastically shift the probability. Egypt’s recent form includes a 3–1 victory over New Zealand and a 1–1 draw with Belgium, while Iran struggled with a 2–2 draw against New Zealand and a 0–0 stalemate with Belgium [4]. The match referee, Szymon Marciniak, is known for strict disciplinary control, which may influence the game’s tempo and goal count [7]. With the settlement window ending at 03:00 UTC on 27 June, all pre-match news from official FIFA channels and team pressers will be critical for validating the 16% exact score probability [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.