IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise final tallies in international football. Settlement captures only the 90-minute result plus stoppage time; any other scoreline defaults to "Any Other Score."

Exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures typically see low individual probabilities because even favoured results fragment across multiple possible margins. Iran's recent qualifying campaign showed inconsistency—they finished third in their Asian confederation group with mixed attacking output, whilst New Zealand qualified via the Oceania pathway and faces a significant step up in competition level. Historical precedent suggests matches between established confederations and Oceania representatives often produce wider margins, though upsets remain possible. The 11% reading implies traders expect a concentrated outcome rather than a rout, suggesting moderate confidence in a competitive match.

Key developments to monitor include squad announcements by late May, particularly injury status for Iran's key attacking players and New Zealand's defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the weeks before the tournament may affect preparation depth. Recent form data from domestic leagues and any warm-up friendlies will clarify current fitness levels. The settlement window closes 2026-06-16 at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation. Traders should track official FIFA communications regarding any fixture rescheduling, though postponement is unlikely given World Cup scheduling protocols.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.