Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 45% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 42% |
| Tom Kim | 35% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 26% |
| Maverick McNealy | 25% |
| Keith Mitchell | 20% |
| Jackson Koivun | 20% |
| Corey Conners | 20% |
| Ben Kohles | 19% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 18% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 18% |
| Sam Stevens | 18% |
| Mac Meissner | 18% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 18% |
| Pierceson Coody | 17% |
| Jackson Suber | 17% |
| Doug Ghim | 17% |
| Benjamin James | 17% |
| Casey Jarvis | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Max Homa | 16% |
| Johnny Keefer | 16% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 16% |
| Michael Kim | 16% |
| Brian Harman | 16% |
| Max McGreevy | 16% |
| Gary Woodland | 14% |
| Tony Finau | 14% |
| Michael Brennan | 14% |
| Max Greyserman | 14% |
| Davis Thompson | 14% |
| Ricky Castillo | 14% |
| Beau Hossler | 14% |
| John Parry | 14% |
| Andrew Putnam | 14% |
| Denny McCarthy | 14% |
| Zac Blair | 14% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 13% |
| William Mouw | 13% |
| Kevin Yu | 13% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Zach Bauchou | 13% |
| Keita Nakajima | 13% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 12% |
| Steven Fisk | 12% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 12% |
| Rico Hoey | 12% |
| Lee Hodges | 12% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 12% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 11% |
| Lucas Glover | 11% |
| Jesper Svensson | 11% |
| Seamus Power | 11% |
| Austin Smotherman | 11% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 11% |
| Tom Hoge | 11% |
| Kevin Roy | 11% |
| Joel Dahmen | 11% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 11% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 10% |
| Preston Stout | 10% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 10% |
| Billy Horschel | 10% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 10% |
| Matt Kuchar | 10% |
| Chris Kirk | 10% |
| Austin Eckroat | 10% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 9% |
| A.J. Ewart | 9% |
| Garrick Higgo | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| David Lipsky | 9% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 8% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 8% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Karl Vilips | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 8% |
| David Skinns | 8% |
| Chandler Phillips | 8% |
| Lanto Griffin | 8% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7% |
| Luke Clanton | 7% |
| Trace Crowe | 7% |
| Aaron Wise | 7% |
| Mark Hubbard | 7% |
| Adam Hadwin | 7% |
| Ryder Cowan | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 6% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 6% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Harry Higgs | 6% |
| Vince Whaley | 6% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 5% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
Market context
PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 — current market-implied probability: 50%. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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