Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 99% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% |
| Davis Riley | 1% |
| Matt Wallace | 1% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 1% |
| Peter Malnati | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% |
| Doug Ghim | 0% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Chris Kirk | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0% |
| Kevin Yu | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Rico Hoey | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Benjamin James | 0% |
| Gordon Sargent | 0% |
| Adam Schenk | 0% |
| Neal Shipley | 0% |
| Davis Thompson | 0% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Tony Finau | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| David Lipsky | 0% |
| Max McGreevy | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Aaron Wise | 0% |
| Matt Kuchar | 0% |
| Zach Bauchou | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Max Greyserman | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Henry Lebioda | 0% |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Adam Svensson | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Karl Vilips | 0% |
| Vince Whaley | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Justin Lower | 0% |
| Zac Blair | 0% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Rafael Campos | 0% |
| Luke Clanton | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% |
| Brad Dalke | 0% |
| Cam Davis | 0% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| A.J. Ewart | 0% |
| Brice Garnett | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% |
| Lee Hodges | 0% |
| Tom Hoge | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0% |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0% |
| Marco Penge | 0% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% |
| Chad Ramey | 0% |
| Kevin Roy | 0% |
| Ryan Ruffels | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Webb Simpson | 0% |
| Kevin Streelman | 0% |
| Dylan Wu | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The Rocket Classic is at Detroit Golf Club, where the pre-tournament market has already been shaped by a short list of favoured names rather than a true blowout candidate. Cameron Young was installed as the clear betting favourite across several books, with Xander Schauffele, Chris Gotterup, Si Woo Kim and Wyndham Clark also clustered near the front of the outright board.[1][3][7][8] That kind of pricing usually means the event is being read as competitive rather than top-heavy, which is why a crowd-implied **0% YES** on any single listed player can be consistent with a field where the leading options are still only around low- to mid-teens in win probability.[1][5][7]
For traders, the main catalysts are final tee-time and withdrawal news, plus any late practice-round information that affects driver accuracy and putting form, both of which matter on a scoring venue like Detroit Golf Club. The last published previews were dated 27–29 July and already reflected moving odds, with Young ranging from about +950 to +1200, Gotterup from +1500 to +1800, and Schauffele around +1600 to +2000 depending on book, so any new scratch or injury note would shift the board quickly.[3][6][7][11] Jackson Koivun’s win the prior week is also relevant because several previews cited him as a live contender immediately after that result, which can drag attention towards form players rather than course-history names.[3][5][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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