Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena | 96% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 2 Winner | 87% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 68% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Game Spread +/-4.5 | 33% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena Match O/U 22.5 | 19% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification atp: jacob fearnley vs roberto carballes baena stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Roberto Carballes Baena in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
Trade US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Robert… on Champions League Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →