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National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils

How the prediction market is pricing "National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 8.5 76% National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils 74% National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 Winner 67% National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 Winner 65% Volume: $110K Liquidity: $687K Closes: 12 Aug 2026
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National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
76% 24% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
76% 24% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 8.576%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils74%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 Winner67%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 Winner65%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 21.557%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 9.554%
Completed Match50%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 8.550%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 22.550%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 9.550%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 10.550%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.547%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 23.544%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Total Sets: O/U 2.540%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 10.529%
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.516%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: learner tien vs gael monfils stands at 76% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Gael Monfils in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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Related Topics

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