Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks are due to meet in the CBA play-offs on 22 May, with the market resolving on the outright winner after overtime if needed. The recent head-to-head points to a tightly contested series rather than a one-sided mismatch. Shanghai won the first game 99-88 on 17 May, but Beijing answered with an 81-66 home win on 20 May to level the tie at 1-1, while the regular-season meetings were split: Shanghai took January’s game 86-67, and Beijing won 83-88 in April. That pattern matters because these teams have repeatedly traded wins, so a crowd price of 0% for Beijing looks detached from the actual series state.

The main catalysts are lineup and availability news, plus whether either side carries over late injury or rotation changes from Game 3. The live results pages and previews currently list the fixture as active for 22 May, which suggests no cancellation risk at present; postponement would keep the market open until the game is played, while a no-contest would be settled 50-50. Traders should watch for confirmed starting fives, any report of minute limits, and whether Beijing’s defence can reproduce the 66-point suppression from the last outing, since that would materially shift the win expectancy.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.