Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| EC Vitória (-1.5) | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 0% |
| EC Vitória (-2.5) | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Vitória 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
EC Vitória and CR Vasco da Gama met in Brazil Série A on 16 July 2026, with the match ending in a 0–0 draw. The settlement window for the “More Markets” prediction closes shortly after this fixture, confirming the result that underpins the current 0% YES crowd-implied probability for any additional betting outcome beyond the standard match result.
Historically, these clubs have played 14 times, with Vitória winning seven, Vasco five, and two draws, indicating a tightly contested rivalry where defensive stalemates are not uncommon [2]. The 0–0 outcome aligns with this pattern of low-scoring encounters, and the absence of goals or extra events in this fixture mirrors previous head-to-head matches where neither side broke the deadlock, supporting the market’s near-zero probability for alternative outcomes.
Traders should monitor post-match official reports for any late disciplinary actions, such as suspensions or injury updates, which could affect future line-ups and shift probabilities in related markets. While no immediate news sources cite new suspensions or injuries from this specific game, the Brazil Série A’s strict disciplinary framework means that any post-match sanctions could influence upcoming fixtures and secondary betting lines [3].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for EC Vitória vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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