Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Henan FC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) | 40% |
| Henan FC O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score | 7% |
| O/U 0.5 | 4% |
| O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Henan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. More markets for the Chinese Super League game, scheduled for August 9 at 7:00 AM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Henan FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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