ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland

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Market context

The underlying event is the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup match between Sri Lanka and Ireland on 23 June 2026 in Bristol, where Sri Lanka are already in the tournament with strong recent form. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability suggests the market expects Sri Lanka to win outright, a stance that mirrors their dominant April–May 2026 tour of Bangladesh, where they swept both the ODI (2–1) and T20I (3–0) series[1]. Historically, such clean sweeps in bilateral T20I contests have preceded World Cup victories for the same side, as seen when Australia’s 2023 bilateral dominance translated into their 2024 World Cup title. Sri Lanka’s current T20I ranking of 7th and their best-ever ODI ranking of 6th further support this trajectory[2].

Traders should watch for final squad announcements, particularly Chamari Athapaththu’s availability after her emotional post-match blame for a recent T20WC loss[8], and any injury updates from the warm-up match against New Zealand, where Sri Lanka posted 143/6[3]. The match schedule shows Sri Lanka played New Zealand on 21 June in Bristol and Bangladesh on 16 June in Southampton, indicating minimal rest before facing Ireland[5]. A key dependency is whether Ireland’s line-up includes their top T20I scorer, as their recent head-to-head record against Sri Lanka is sparse but generally unfavourable. For real-time squad news, ESPNcricinfo’s live match centre remains the most reliable source[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.