Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Burnley travel to Molineux on the final day of the 2025–26 Premier League season to face Wolverhampton Wanderers, with the 17% implied probability suggesting the market prices a Burnley victory as a significant underdog outcome. Both clubs' final-day positioning will be crystallised by results elsewhere, meaning either side could be playing for survival, European qualification, or merely pride depending on how the season unfolds across the division.

Historically, Burnley's away record at Wolves has been mixed; the clubs' last five meetings show Wolves holding a marginal edge with two wins to Burnley's one, though draws have featured prominently. The current 17% probability reflects Wolves' stronger recent trajectory and home advantage, yet final-day matches frequently produce atypical results when desperation or fixture congestion affects squad freshness. Burnley's promotion credentials in recent seasons suggest they retain competitive depth, but the low probability indicates the market expects Wolves to be favourites regardless of league position.

Key variables to monitor include team news from the preceding midweek fixtures—both clubs may face fixture congestion if European commitments extend into late May—and any late-season injuries to key personnel. Managerial changes or unexpected suspensions announced in the final fortnight could shift the line materially. The settlement window closes at 15:00 on match day, leaving minimal window for late-breaking team-sheet adjustments, so traders should lock positions once confirmed line-ups emerge on Friday or Saturday morning.

Methodology

We track Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.