England vs. Costa Rica - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England will host Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, with the match scheduled for 16:00 ET. The 74% implied probability reflects England's substantial advantage: a ranking gap of roughly 50 places (England typically sits around 4th–5th globally; Costa Rica around 30th–35th), combined with home advantage at an English stadium. Friendlies involving established European sides against Central American opposition historically settle at similar or higher confidence levels, particularly when the fixture occurs outside major tournament windows where squad rotation is less pronounced.

England's recent friendly record against comparable opposition shows decisive margins. Their last three friendlies against non-top-10 nations produced wins by 2+ goals in most instances, though squad composition varies considerably in non-competitive fixtures. Costa Rica, meanwhile, has struggled in recent friendlies against European sides, with their last three such encounters yielding defeats. Head-to-head records between the nations favour England substantially across all competitive and friendly meetings since 1997.

Key variables for traders: team-sheet announcements will arrive closer to the fixture date, particularly regarding English rotation policy—friendlies in June 2026 may see experimental line-ups if major tournaments are imminent. Costa Rica's injury status, especially among their core midfield, could shift their defensive solidity. Weather conditions at the English venue and any late fixture postponements (unlikely but possible) represent minor tail risks. Monitor official FA communications and squad lists from both federations in the final 48 hours before settlement.

Methodology

We track England vs. Costa Rica - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.