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Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props

How the prediction market is pricing "Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots 89% Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots 76% Lionel Messi: 1+ goals 66% Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists 64% Volume: $182K Liquidity: $670K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
Open live market →
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots89%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots76%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals66%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists64%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots55%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots54%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals50%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target50%
Juan Musso: 3+ saves50%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target49%
Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target49%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots49%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target48%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target48%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target48%
Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target48%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target48%
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target48%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target48%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target48%
Juan Musso: 2+ saves48%
Juan Musso: 4+ saves48%
Juan Musso: 5+ saves48%
Vózinha: 2+ saves48%
Vózinha: 3+ saves48%
Vózinha: 4+ saves48%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists48%
Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target44%
Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target42%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots42%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots38%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists35%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists35%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots35%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots33%
Vózinha: 5+ saves32%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals31%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target31%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals29%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots28%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target27%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots26%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots25%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists24%
Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots23%
Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots22%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots20%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target20%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots19%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots18%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists18%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots16%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists16%
José Manuel López: 1+ goals14%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals14%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target14%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target14%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists13%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists12%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists12%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals11%
Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots11%
José Manuel López: 2+ goals10%
Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots10%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals9%
Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots9%
Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots8%
Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots8%
Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots7%
Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots7%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals6%
Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots6%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals5%
José Manuel López: 3+ goals5%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals5%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists5%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals4%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots4%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals3%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists3%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists3%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals2%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals2%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals1%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals1%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals0%

Market context

Market consensus: 89% chance of argentina vs. cabo verde - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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