Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 21% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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