Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| Japan Corners: O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 72% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Brazil Corners: O/U 4.5 | 63% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 61% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| Brazil Corners: O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Japan Corners: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Brazil Corners: O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Japan Corners: O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 14% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 80% YES probability for Brazil vs. Japan - Total Corners. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Brazil vs. Japan - Total Corners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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