Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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