Colombia vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group K match between Colombia and DR Congo, set for 10:00 PM ET on 23 June at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, is the real-world event driving the "Exact Score" market where a 2–1 Colombia victory currently holds a 9% crowd-implied probability. Colombia enters with momentum after a 3–1 win over Uzbekistan, scoring through three different players, while DR Congo showed resilience in a 1–1 draw against Portugal, with Yoane Wissa netting their first World Cup goal.

Historically, exact scores like 2–1 in World Cup group stages occur roughly 8–10% of the time, aligning closely with the current 9% pricing; comparable cases include Colombia’s 2–1 victory over Costa Rica in June 2026 and DR Congo’s narrow 1–2 loss to Chile, suggesting both teams can score but Colombia’s set-piece strength may tip the balance. Traders should monitor pre-match line-up confirmations, particularly Juan Camilo Hernandez’s fitness for Colombia and Cedric Bakambu’s availability for DR Congo, as both are key attacking figures. Recent analysis from USA Today highlights DR Congo’s compact defensive structure and Colombia’s reliance on controlled possession, which may suppress total goals below the 2.5 line, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals market shaded at minus 140. Any late injury news or tactical shifts announced by FIFA’s official match centre before the 2026-06-24T02:00:00Z settlement window could significantly alter the probability landscape.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.