Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Haiti qualified for their second World Cup appearance in 2024, whilst Scotland secured qualification through the UEFA play-offs in November 2024. The current 0% probability for an exact-score match reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting precise scorelines in football; even heavily favoured outcomes rarely exceed 15–20% implied probability for any single exact result.

Scotland enters as clear favourites based on FIFA rankings and recent competitive record. They sit approximately 40 places ahead of Haiti in the world rankings and have demonstrated consistent qualification pedigree across recent tournaments. Haiti's World Cup experience remains limited, with their previous appearance in 2018 yielding minimal points. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse, offering limited predictive value. Recent form matters considerably: Scotland's qualifying campaign showed defensive solidity, whilst Haiti's path through CONCACAF qualifiers revealed vulnerability against stronger sides, particularly in away fixtures.

Traders should monitor team news through May and early June 2026, particularly injury updates affecting Scotland's midfield and Haiti's attacking options. Squad announcements typically arrive six weeks before the tournament. Weather conditions on match day—humidity and temperature in the host nation—can influence playing style and goal frequency. The specific group composition and preceding fixtures may also affect tactical approach, as teams balance progression mathematics against player fatigue. Any late withdrawals or suspensions announced immediately before the tournament could shift expected scorelines materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.