Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Netherlands and Japan will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 14 June, with the match settling on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 4% probability assigned to an exact-score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting specific scorelines in international football; across the last three World Cup tournaments, exact-score markets have typically resolved YES in fewer than 3% of group-stage matches, with most games producing either 1–0, 1–1, or 2–1 results. The Netherlands has won both recent encounters with Japan (3–0 in 2014 World Cup qualification, 2–0 in 2019 friendlies), establishing a clear technical advantage, though the 4% figure suggests the market views the outcome as sufficiently uncertain that any single scoreline remains improbable.

Key variables affecting settlement include squad availability and tactical approach. The Netherlands qualified for 2026 with a relatively stable squad, though injuries to key defenders or midfielders during the tournament could alter their attacking intensity. Japan's defensive record in recent qualifiers has been vulnerable to pressing, conceding 1.2 goals per match in their final qualifying rounds. Confirmation of final squad lists typically arrives four weeks before the tournament; any late withdrawals or surprise inclusions could shift expected goal-scoring patterns. Weather conditions at the match venue in North America may also influence play, particularly if temperatures exceed 25°C, which historically favours possession-based sides like the Netherlands and reduces the likelihood of low-scoring draws that dominate exact-score markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.