Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| O/U 38.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 80% |
| Montana State O/U 20.5 | 79% |
| Nevada O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Montana State O/U 21.5 | 73% |
| Montana State O/U 22.5 | 72% |
| Nevada O/U 17.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 70% |
| Montana State O/U 23.5 | 69% |
| Nevada O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| Montana State vs. Nevada | 66% |
| Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| O/U 46.5 | 65% |
| Nevada O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Montana State O/U 24.5 | 62% |
| Montana State O/U 25.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Montana State O/U 26.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| Montana State O/U 27.5 | 54% |
| Nevada O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| Nevada O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Montana State O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 47% |
| Montana State O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Montana State O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| Spread -27.5 | 42% |
| Nevada O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| Nevada O/U 26.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| Montana State O/U 32.5 | 35% |
| Montana State O/U 31.5 | 35% |
| O/U 58.5 | 34% |
| Spread -0.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Montana State O/U 33.5 | 30% |
| Nevada O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 60.5 | 29% |
| Spread -11.5 | 29% |
| Nevada O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Montana State O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 64.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -18.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| O/U 68.5 | 15% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 70.5 | 13% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -24.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
Market context
Montana State vs. Nevada — current market-implied probability: 94%. In the upcoming college football game between Montana State and Nevada, scheduled for September 12 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Montana State" if Montana State win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $87K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Montana State vs. Nevada. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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