Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| O/U 42.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 100% |
| O/U 48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 50.5 | 100% |
| O/U 52.5 | 100% |
| O/U 54.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Texas O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Texas O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| Texas O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| Texas O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Texas 2H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Texas 2H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Spread -27.5 | 98% |
| Spread -10.5 | 88% |
| Spread -24.5 | 87% |
| Spread: Texas (-30.5) | 75% |
| O/U 59.5 | 64% |
| O/U 60.5 | 57% |
| Spread -21.5 | 53% |
| O/U 58.5 | 53% |
| Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brad Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Beau Sparks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Torrance Burgess Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylen Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Dawn Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaliq Lockett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| LaKeyleon Graves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zechariah Sample: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blake Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 37% |
| O/U 78.5 | 27% |
| O/U 66.5 | 25% |
| O/U 72.5 | 19% |
| Texas State vs. Texas | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of texas state vs. texas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Texas State wins, the market will resolve to "Texas State". If Texas wins, the market will resolve…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $124K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Texas State vs. Texas. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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