Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 89% |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 88% |
| Henan FC O/U 2.5 | 80% |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 64% |
| O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score | 40% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Henan FC and Qingdao Hainiu FC meet in a Chinese Super League fixture on 17 July 2026, with the market heavily favouring the existence of additional betting options beyond the standard match outcome. The 88% YES probability reflects the league’s routine inclusion of extended markets such as total goals, half-time scores, and player-specific props for mid-table clashes, a pattern consistent with recent CSL scheduling. Historical data shows that when teams with similar form records—Henan at 6-3-8 and Qingdao at 6-3-9—face each other, bookmakers almost invariably activate more markets, as seen in their 1-1 draw on 29 August 2025, which featured expanded betting lines [1][2].
Traders should monitor the official team line-ups released shortly before the 7:35 AM ET kick-off, as any confirmed suspensions or injuries could alter market depth. Henan’s recent away form and Qingdao’s defensive consistency suggest a tight contest, but the presence of a -1.5 spread favouring Henan indicates bookmakers expect goal-scoring opportunities that typically trigger additional markets [2]. No major injury reports have surfaced as of midday UTC, but a late announcement from either club’s management could shift liquidity. The settlement window closes at 11:35 UTC, aligning with the match’s conclusion, ensuring all outcomes are resolved promptly [2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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