T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ireland and West Indies will contest a T20 women's cricket match on 1 June 2026 as part of a tri-series format. The current market probability of 100% YES suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that this fixture will produce a definitive result rather than abandonment or cancellation. Given the settlement window closes 8 June, there is a six-day buffer after the scheduled match date to accommodate weather delays or rescheduling within the tournament structure.

West Indies women have held a marginal edge in recent T20 head-to-head encounters against Ireland, though both sides occupy similar rankings tiers in the ICC women's T20 standings. Ireland's domestic infrastructure and ground availability in June presents no logistical barrier; the tri-series format itself typically includes contingency dates built into scheduling. Historical abandonment rates for women's T20 internationals remain below 3%, with most cancellations occurring in regions prone to monsoon conditions rather than the Irish summer climate.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both boards, typically released 7–10 days before tournament start, as late injuries or unavailability could theoretically trigger a walkover declaration. West Indies touring schedules occasionally face last-minute adjustments due to travel logistics or administrative delays, though such instances rarely prevent matches entirely. The tri-series organisers will publish final venue confirmation and weather contingencies once the tournament window approaches, likely in May 2026. Any formal postponement announcement would move the market decisively; absent such news, the probability reflects standard tournament execution risk.

Methodology

We track T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.