Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| Argentina O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Team to Advance | 74% |
| O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Switzerland O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Argentina O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Argentina (-1.5) | 30% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Argentina O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Switzerland O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 14% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Argentina (-2.5) | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Switzerland O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 5% |
| Argentina (-3.5) | 5% |
| Argentina (-4.5) | 5% |
| Argentina (-5.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Switzerland (-5.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 1% |
| Switzerland (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Switzerland (-3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to argentina vs. switzerland - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Argentina vs. Switzerland - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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