Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 12 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 10% probability, implying roughly a 1-in-10 chance the final whistle lands on one of the explicitly listed scorelines rather than "Any Other Score." This reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match results; even heavily favoured teams rarely settle matches at anticipated margins.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures typically cluster around 15–25% for the combined probability of all listed outcomes, depending on the strength differential between opponents. Canada's 2022 World Cup campaign saw them eliminated in the group stage without a win, whilst Bosnia-Herzegovina failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 entirely. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse; they last met in 2013 (friendly, 1–1 draw). The 10% reading implies traders are pricing in either significant uncertainty about team selection and form heading into June 2026, or a genuine expectation of an atypical scoreline.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins from both federations in the weeks before the fixture. Canada's domestic league performance and European-based players' form through spring 2026 will signal attacking threat; Bosnia-Herzegovina's qualification path and final squad composition remain fluid variables. Any late withdrawals or tactical shifts from either manager could shift the probability of specific outcomes materially. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, leaving minimal margin for late-breaking team news to influence the line.

Methodology

We track Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.