Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
14% | 86% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
14% | 86% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1 - 0 Algeria | 14% |
| Switzerland 1 - 1 Algeria | 14% |
| Switzerland 2 - 1 Algeria | 11% |
| Switzerland 0 - 0 Algeria | 10% |
| Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria | 10% |
| Any Other Score | 8% |
| Switzerland 0 - 1 Algeria | 8% |
| Switzerland 2 - 2 Algeria | 6% |
| Switzerland 1 - 2 Algeria | 6% |
| Switzerland 3 - 0 Algeria | 5% |
| Switzerland 3 - 1 Algeria | 5% |
| Switzerland 3 - 2 Algeria | 3% |
| Switzerland 0 - 2 Algeria | 3% |
| Switzerland 1 - 3 Algeria | 2% |
| Switzerland 2 - 3 Algeria | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 3 Algeria | 1% |
| Switzerland 0 - 3 Algeria | 1% |
Market context
The upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 32 clash between Switzerland and Algeria at BC Place in Vancouver pits a methodical Swiss side against an Algerian team that survived a chaotic group stage. Switzerland topped their group with seven points, including wins over Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Algeria scraped through with four points after a dramatic 3–3 thriller against Austria. The 5% crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome reflects the rarity of predicting a precise final result in knockout football, where defensive caution often dominates early rounds.
Historically, exact score markets in World Cup knockout ties resolve to "Any Other Score" in over 80% of cases, with 1–0 and 2–1 being the most frequent outcomes in recent tournaments. Switzerland holds a perfect head-to-head record against Algeria, winning both previous encounters with a combined 4–1 goal margin, suggesting a psychological edge. However, Algeria’s last four matches have all produced over 2.5 goals, and they conceded first in their last five World Cup games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could inflate the scoreline.
Traders should monitor final team news released before the 11:00 p.m. ET kickoff, particularly regarding Granit Xhaka’s fitness for Switzerland and Riyad Mahrez’s availability for Algeria, as both are pivotal to attacking structure. Referee Yael Falcón Pérez’s tendency for strict disciplinary action may influence the tempo, while weather conditions in Vancouver could affect play. As noted by Sky Sports, squad valuations are comparable (€322m vs €256m), but Algeria’s younger average age (26.9 vs 28.4) may offer a late-game surge if the match remains tight [1][2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Algeria - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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