Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Colombia O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Switzerland O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 48% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Team to Advance | 39% |
| Colombia O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 29% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Switzerland O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Colombia (-1.5) | 20% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 16% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 16% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Colombia O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 9% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Colombia (-2.5) | 7% |
| Switzerland O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Colombia (-4.5) | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 2% |
| Colombia (-3.5) | 2% |
| Switzerland (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Switzerland (-4.5) | 0% |
| Switzerland (-5.5) | 0% |
| Colombia (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between Switzerland and Colombia at BC Place in Vancouver, scheduled for 9:00pm GMT+1 on Tuesday 7 July 2026. With the crowd-implied probability of a “more markets” outcome sitting at just 9% YES, the market suggests a tight, low-event game is expected, mirroring historical Round of 16 fixtures where defensive discipline often overrides attacking flair. Comparable cases from recent World Cups show that when both sides enter with solid form and minimal injury crises, the number of additional betting markets rarely expands significantly, as matches tend to end with narrow margins and limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Traders must watch for pre-match line-up confirmations, particularly regarding Jordan Bos, Switzerland’s dynamic wing-back, who is heading for scans on a suspected serious left knee injury [1]. His absence could force a defensive reshuffle, reducing Switzerland’s attacking width and further dampening the likelihood of extra markets. Colombia’s reliance on Luis Diaz, their standout forward who edged through a tight Round of 32 tie, also remains a key dependency [3]. Any late suspension or injury to Diaz would drastically alter Colombia’s offensive threat. Additionally, the final squad announcements released within the next 24 hours will be critical, as confirmed injuries or tactical shifts could move the line and increase the probability of more markets becoming active.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Colombia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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