Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 33% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals | 33% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Armando González: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| César Huerta: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 20% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Armando González: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of mexico vs. ecuador - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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