Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Netherlands meet Sweden in Houston with the scoreline market sitting at a low 5% for **Yes**, which implies traders think the exact outcome most likely falls outside the listed options. That pricing makes sense given the mix of recent form on both sides: Sweden arrive after a 5-1 win over Tunisia, their strongest World Cup scoring display in 88 years, while the Dutch are trying to reset after an opening draw that Reuters described as disappointing.[1] ESPN’s pre-match odds also point to a fairly tight contest, with the Netherlands a modest favourite, the draw around +310 and Sweden priced as the outsider.[6]

The historical frame matters because this fixture has often leaned one way without being one-sided. WhoScored say the Netherlands have won four and lost one of the last seven meetings, which supports the Dutch being the more established side in the matchup, but Sky Sports’ recent form lines show both teams have been involved in scorelines that can drift away from a simple 1-0 or 2-1 pattern.[7][3] The Netherlands have also been conceding at a rate of 2.00 goals per game in the tournament data cited by The Athletic, which keeps upset-score and multi-goal possibilities alive.[9]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups and any late fitness updates before the 17:00 UTC kick-off, because exact-score markets are highly sensitive to whether either side starts conservatively or goes with extra attacking width. FIFA’s match page and ESPN’s live match listing both confirm the fixture timing and venue, while Reuters notes Sweden can clinch knockout qualification with a win, adding incentive for a more aggressive approach than the Dutch might prefer to face.[8][6][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.