Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 73% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 53% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 36% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots | 33% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 5+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 8% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 7% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 6% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props on Champions League Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →