Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 72% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 62% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 59% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 37% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 26% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 24% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 7% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 6% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 4% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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