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LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

How the prediction market is pricing "LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 100% First Blood in Game 1? 100% First Blood in Game 2? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $1.5M Liquidity: $809K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
First Blood in Game 1?100%
First Blood in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?100%
Odd/Even Total Kills90%
Match Winner89%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?74%
Game 2 Winner72%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5)61%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
O/U 2.5 Games29%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor0%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon0%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: movistar koi vs team vitality (bo3) - lec regular season stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Team Vitality in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 26 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "M…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
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