Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 86% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 65% |
| NRFI | 58% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers’ home game against the Athletics opens with a market that still prices Detroit as a modest favourite, with the crowd-implied 56% YES sitting close to the sort of mid-50s moneyline edge the Tigers have repeatedly carried in this matchup and similar late-July spot checks.[5][8][17] That is consistent with recent head-to-head form: Detroit beat Oakland 6-1 on 8 July, and ESPN’s game page for the rematch showed the Tigers priced as the more likely winner before that result.[2][1] In practical terms, the current probability is not an outlier; it sits in the same band as recent Tigers-Athletics pricing rather than reflecting a strong market conviction.
For traders, the main catalysts are the line-up card, whether Detroit rests anyone in a wrap-around series spot, and the final pitching confirmation. One preview listed Casey Mize versus Jeffrey Springs, with Mize carrying a 2.70 ERA and Springs a 6.23 ERA, a starting-pitching split that would support Detroit if it holds at first pitch.[10] The other key dependency is whether the game stays on schedule, because the market remains open if postponed and only settles on the completed official result; a cancellation or tie would push it 50-50. Recent preview pages and odds boards also suggest this fixture has been moving around the low- to mid-50s for Detroit, so any late team news, bullpen availability or batting-order rest will matter more than broad season records alone.[3][5][18]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $180K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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