MLB: ERA Leader

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 ERA race is being led early by **Jacob Misiorowski**, who sits at **1.45** in the MLB stats tables, with other contenders already bunched behind him in a narrow top tier. That matters because ERA titles are usually won by pitchers who combine elite run prevention with enough innings to qualify, and recent leaderboards have shown how quickly a small stretch of poor starts or a workload change can reshuffle the picture. [1][3]

For comparison, the market’s **1% yes** price implies a longshot rather than a firm favourite, which is typical this far from the end of September even for pitchers currently near the top. The key historical filter is volume: strike-rate dominance alone is not enough if a club manages innings, uses an opener pattern, or pulls a starter after injury or fatigue, and the official MLB tiebreak rules mean innings pitched and then strikeouts can decide an otherwise level race. [1][3][5]

What traders should watch now is the next run of starts, any innings caps, rotation shuffles and injury notes, especially for pitchers already sitting on low ERAs through relatively modest workload totals. MLB’s official pitching leaderboard is the cleanest reference point for tracking whether a current name is still qualifying, while recent MLB coverage has already flagged Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez and other arms as part of the 2026 elite group, so any change in their usage or form would move this market quickly. [3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.